Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 11.580965 13.266274 15.076696 17.162022 19.493418 22.015295 24.945187
2025-10-26 8.864071 11.102102 13.691042 16.890601 20.720563 25.139096 30.602295
2025-11-02 7.580521 10.057572 13.061779 16.942335 21.787437 27.600030 35.059589
2025-11-09 6.620025 9.255344 12.590728 17.071978 22.878311 30.084876 39.634415
2025-11-16 5.816395 8.519783 12.072712 17.013255 23.623072 32.068978 43.569003
2025-11-23 5.124850 7.843073 11.543465 16.855289 24.173344 33.774286 47.170730
2025-11-30 4.640332 7.391586 11.258530 16.970460 25.048205 35.896070 51.361061
2025-12-07 4.333326 7.158226 11.244954 17.438191 26.402537 38.691610 56.544509
2025-12-14 3.878039 6.652227 10.786772 17.218778 26.750913 40.092534 59.844060
2025-12-21 3.356698 5.988408 10.033253 16.497231 26.309707 40.335322 61.497764
2025-12-28 3.174124 5.846853 10.058618 16.936641 27.580123 43.049630 66.743840
2026-01-04 2.983039 5.670956 10.011679 17.251390 28.664884 45.522416 71.717106
2026-01-11 2.712760 5.339868 9.698049 17.136026 29.100861 47.081655 75.456805
2026-01-18 2.458100 5.010860 9.361069 16.956839 29.420716 48.472390 78.994101
2026-01-25 2.266602 4.774906 9.158100 16.975341 30.039928 50.323552 83.269471
2026-02-01 2.114091 4.595629 9.036782 17.117374 30.856398 52.499884 88.107650
2026-02-08 1.944533 4.366055 8.807187 17.054120 31.322546 54.132431 92.145025
2026-02-15 1.778039 4.124990 8.536641 16.897403 31.615531 55.488405 95.779813
2026-02-22 1.663801 3.977515 8.425490 17.012249 32.366256 57.597295 100.666405
2026-03-01 1.603469 3.935944 8.509197 17.481192 33.743103 60.768961 107.354649
2026-03-08 1.465263 3.714040 8.229454 17.261232 33.899287 61.924053 110.795236
2026-03-15 1.284703 3.379106 7.700906 16.538163 33.119665 61.474932 111.570466
2026-03-22 1.241587 3.349511 7.780861 16.978508 34.451198 64.635393 118.428574